MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0532
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
245 AM EDT SUN AUG 07 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 070643Z - 071045Z
 
SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR
PORTIONS OF CNTRL KS UNTIL 11Z WHEN WANING INSTABILITY SHOULD
DIMINISH RAINFALL RATES. UNTIL THEN...RAINFALL RATES UP TO 1.5
IN/HR CAN BE EXPECTED WHERE TEMPORARY TRAINING OCCURS...POSSIBLY
ECLIPSING LOCALLY LOWER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.

DISCUSSION...AT 06Z...A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WAS OBSERVED IN
W-CNTRL KS...MOVING TOWARD THE EAST AT ROUGHLY 20-30 KTS. TWO MCVS
WERE IDENTIFIED...EACH WITH TRAILING BOWING SEGMENTS TO THE SOUTH.
IN ADDITION...AN EAST-WEST BAND OF TRAINING SHOWERS WAS LOCATED
NORTH OF I-70...NORTH OF KRSL...AHEAD OF THE NWD BOWING SEGMENT.

3 HOUR CHANGE IN MUCAPE...VIA THE SPC MESOANALYSIS
PAGE...INDICATED A 500-1000 J/KG INCREASE CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL KS
AS OF 06Z. THIS INCREASE IS A REFLECTION OF THE NWD TRANSPORT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VIA A 30 KT 850 MB JET EXTENDING SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS W-CNTRL OK. BETTER INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER SRN KANSAS
WHERE HIGHER INTENSITY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT FORWARD
PROPAGATION WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. LOCATIONS
FARTHER NORTH WILL FOLLOW THE TRACK OF A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY
MAX...EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD CLOSE TO I-70 THROUGH 12Z...AND WHERE
A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING WILL EXIST. HOWEVER...IT IS THESE
LOCATIONS CLOSER TO I-70 WHERE LOWER MUCAPES SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL
INTENSITY...OUTSIDE OF POCKETS OF LOWER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE DUE
TO RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL KS. 

OVERALL THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO POCKETS OF
LOWER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...AND LIKELY DIMINISH BY 11Z DUE TO A
REDUCTION IN AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39879907 39879738 39559645 38559603 37649639 
            37209730 37109890 37300045 38620137 39250142 
            39700107 39840010