MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0533
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
210 AM EDT MON AUG 08 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS/OK BORDER EWD INTO THE OZARKS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 080609Z - 081015Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING AND TRAINING RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT LOCATIONS JUST NORTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY EXTEND FARTHER
EAST TOWARD THE OZARKS BY 09-10Z.

DISCUSSION...06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
FROM SOUTH OF LIT...NWWD TOWARD TUL AND WEST TOWARD GAG. ESTIMATED
MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG OVER CNTRL OK WERE BEING ADVECTED
ATOP THE STATIONARY FRONT INTO SRN KS VIA A 25-30 KT 850 MB JET.
ELEVATED CONVECTION IN SRN KS APPEARS TO BE ROOTED NEAR 700 MB
WITH CELLS SLOWLY MOVING OFF TOWARD THE ENE. LOCAL ENHANCEMENT TO
CONVECTION WAS RECENTLY NOTED NEAR ICT AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SURGED NORTH AND EAST FROM NRN OK. 

THE UNCERTAIN LONGER TERM FUTURE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STEADILY
PROPAGATING NORTH AND EAST INTO S-CNTRL KANSAS AS OF 06Z CASTS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FUTURE OF TRAINING OVER S-CNTRL
KANSAS...BUT WITH CONTINUED ADVECTION OF INSTABILITY ATOP THE
STATIONARY FRONT INTO NERN OK AND SERN KS...ADDITIONAL TRAINING OF
CELLS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL MOTION OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT OR
TOWARD THE ESE. RAP FORECASTS SHOW WEAKENING MUCAPE OVER THE
OZARKS BY 09Z-10Z...BELOW 500 J/KG...WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT
RAINFALL INTENSITY. HOWEVER IN THE SHORT TERM...FLASH FLOODING
APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS EAST OF THE WICHITA METRO...AHEAD
OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS SURGING NORTH AND EAST AS OF 06Z.


OTTO

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...LZK...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   38479733 38319559 37439369 36959333 36279322 
            35989360 36029439 36159537 36299619 35829705 
            35949775 36299827 36839859 37569849 38229820