MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0535
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1143 PM EDT TUE AUG 09 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN BORDER OF ND/SD 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 100340Z - 100940Z
 
SUMMARY...RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WITH REPEATING ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING WITH 6 HR TOTALS OF 2-4
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS SRN ND AND NRN SD.

DISCUSSION...A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS
THE WRN ND/SD BORDER AS OF 0315Z ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH NRN SD. INCREASING 850 MB FLOW HAS
ALLOWED RAPID MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE NORTH WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RISING 5-10 DEGREES IN THE PAST 4 HOURS NEAR THE FRONT
AT ABR AND ATY. DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN CNTRL/ERN SD
ARE IN THE LOW-MID 70S...CONTRIBUTING TO AN ESTIMATED MLCAPE OF
3000-4000 J/KG. 

WHILE THE MCS ACROSS THE WRN SD/ND BORDER IS LARGELY PROGRESSIVE
TOWARD THE EAST...SLY FLOW ATOP THE STATIONARY FRONT HAS LED TO
CELLS OUT AHEAD OF THE MCS ACROSS CAMPBELL...EMMONS AND LOGAN
COUNTIES AS OF 03Z. RAP FORECASTS TAKE THE ONGOING SELY 850 MB
WIND OF 20 KTS AT ABR TO SSW AT 30 KTS BETWEEN 07-08Z. THIS SHOULD
FURTHER HELP INSTABILITY TRANSPORT ATOP THE STATIONARY
FRONT...ALLOWING FOR GROWING COVERAGE OP ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH
OF THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH TO THE MCS BACK TO THE WEST. IN
ADDITION...WHILE PERHAPS TOO FAR NORTH...THE PRESENCE OF RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS TIED TO A 100+ KT UPPER JET OVER SRN
MANITOBA MAY ALSO ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF ND. THE
COMBINATION OF REPEATING ROUNDS MAY PRODUCE REPEATING 1-2 IN/HR
RAINFALL RATES WITH 6 HOUR TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER
BY 09-10Z. THIS WOULD EXCEED FFG OF 2-3 INCHES IN 3 HOURS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...FGF...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   47219814 47159640 46949611 46569593 45949606 
            45599648 45279748 45209966 45320117 45800189 
            46480185 47100023