MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0536
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
205 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST SD...SOUTHEAST ND...WEST-CENTRAL MN
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 101800Z - 102200Z
SUMMARY...AN AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES WILL BE FALLING OVER AREAS THAT SAW RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF
COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN AN ELEVATED FASHION OVER
SOUTHEAST ND IN PARTICULAR. SOME ADDITIONAL CELLS ARE ATTEMPTING
TO ALSO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN SD. THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
INFLUENCED RATHER STRONGLY BY THE PLACEMENT OF A SMALL SCALE
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TRAVERSING THE ND/SD BORDER WHILE INTERACTING
WITH A LARGER SCALE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIR CONTINUES TO POOL ALONG
A W/E ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT...AND THE CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD
TEND TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE FRONT.
HIRES GUIDANCE LED BY THE 16Z HRRR SUGGESTS AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4
INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN LOCALLY OVER SOUTHEAST ND WHERE HEAVY
RAINFALL OCCURRED LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. THE CONVECTIVE
TRENDS SUGGEST AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME W/E TRAINING OF CELLS THAT
WOULD IMPACT THIS AREA ALONG WITH POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL MN. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SEVERE MODE TO SOME OF THE
ELEVATED CONVECTION...THE PWATS OF NEAR 1.5 INCHES WILL FAVOR
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES THAT MAY APPROACH 2 INCHES/HR.
THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL RISK CONCERNS FOR SOME FLASH FLOODING
AND/OR RUNOFF PROBLEMS AT LEAST LOCALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WHERE THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CORES SET-UP ALONG WITH TRAINING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
ORRISON
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...DLH...FGF...MPX...
ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...
LAT...LON 46839555 46619452 46059412 45729477 45739585
45729716 45489918 45629971 46079940 46489855
46749732
Last Updated: 205 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2016