MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0539
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
630 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST MN...NORTHWEST WI 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 102229Z - 110129Z
 
SUMMARY...SHORT-FUSE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH HIGHLY EFFICIENT
CONVECTION WITH CELL MERGERS LIKELY. 

DISCUSSION...GOES-E SRSO VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SLOW MOVING
ROTATING CELL ACROSS NE MORRISON INTO N MILLE LACS COUNTY ALONG
THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE LINE APPROACHING WITH
MATURE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION.  HIGH MOISTURE
FLUX/CONVERGENCE WITH SFC TDS IN THE MID-70S ALONG WITH ANOMALOUS
TPWS AT OR ABOVE 1.75" HAS MADE THIS CELL CLUSTER AND UPSTREAM
CONVECTIVE LINE CAPABLE OF RAIN RATES OVER 2-2.5"/HR.  THOUGH FFG
VALUES ARE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR 2-2.5" IN 1HR...THIS SLOW MOTION
AND EVENTUAL MERGER SHOULD EXCEED THESE VALUES.   

ELSEWHERE ACROSS NE MN...GENERAL OVERTURNING CAN BE SEEN NORTH
LAST NIGHT'S OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS DISCUSSED IN MPD
538...INCREASING THE BREADTH OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE AND AS SUCH
THE DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL COMPOUNDING TOTALS FOR AN ISOLATED
FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS NE MN INTO FAR NW WI BY NIGHT FALL.  

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   47279204 46909134 46409153 45969194 45469319 
            45679487 46039470 46439402 46929301