MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0540...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
927 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2016
 
CORRECTED FOR SPELLING ERRORS

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AZ 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 110112Z - 110512Z
 
SUMMARY...HIGHLY SCATTERED BUT TERRAIN ANCHORED REDEVELOPMENT
WITHIN UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SUPPORTS TRAINING/COMPOUNDING TOTALS
FOR FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS.

DISCUSSION...GOES COMPOSITE WV LOOP INDICATES SHEARING VORTICITY
CENTER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND ELONGATE AS WELL AS
THE AXIS OF THE 60-70KT 3H JET LIFTING AWAY INTO NW CO.  THIS
SHIFTS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SOUTHWARD TOWARD SW AZ. 
HOWEVER...A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
TERRAIN IN N MOHAVE COUNTY...SOME LOCALIZED STORM SCALE INFLUENCES
ON LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO THE TERRAIN AS WELL A APPROACHING LEAD
EDGE OF SHORTWAVE CROSS SE CA/S NV (PER WV) SUPPORTS ENOUGH LIFT
TO MAINTAIN THE THREAT THERE.

FURTHER SOUTH IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF 40-50KTS OF 3H FLOW...A
SIMILAR SETUP IS BEING MAINTAINED IN LA PAZ COUNTY...THAT HAD
OCCURRED FURTHER NORTH TODAY IN MOHAVE AND S UT COUNTIES.   WEST
OF THE TERRAIN IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY... MLCAPES TO 2000
J/KG COINCIDENT ALONG WITH 1.6-1.8" TPW AND SOUTHERLY 850MB
MOISTURE FLUX ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED CONVECTIVE VIGOR AND
RAINFALL PRODUCTION WITH RATES IN THE 1.5"/HR RANGE.  THOUGH AS
CORES MOVE OFF THE TERRAIN AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
REDUCED...CELLS GENERALLY WEAKEN BUT ARE REPLACED BY THE NEW
FAVORED UPDRAFTS ALONG THE UPSTREAM TERRAIN.  UNDER FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...THIS SUPPORTS THESE NARROW CONVECTIVE LINES
SEEN IN SATELLITE AND ISOLATED POCKETS OF CONCENTRATED RAINFALL
TOTALS IN THE 2-4" RANGE LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS
(GIVEN DESERT SOILS/HARD PAN CONDITIONS). 

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...

LAT...LON   36821327 35901297 35211337 33661277 33281173 
            33211123 32411063 31761076 31361114 31601209 
            31891238 32681271 33351400 34091406 35531409 
            36391384