MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0545...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
147 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2016
 
CORRECTED FOR GRAPHICAL COORDINATES

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 
 
VALID 111415Z - 111800Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ WILL
CONTINUE TO FOSTER ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM CONCERNS FOR FLASH
FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING CONVECTIVE TOPS
ONCE AGAIN OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF
PINAL COUNTY. THE ACTIVITY AGAIN APPEARS TO BE GETTING INFLUENCED
BY WEAK VORT ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE REGION...AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MID LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT.
LOW LOVEL MOISTURE IS VERY WELL ENTRENCHED...WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

THE LATEST HRRR/HRRP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH 18Z AND THIS MAY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF/FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...

LAT...LON   33781178 33451115 33121070 32840999 32240987 
            31911021 31861109 32321192 32891226 33311239 
            33681231