MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0551
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1208 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN AL...WESTERN FL PANHANDLE 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 121600Z - 122100Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY TRAINING OVER
THE SAME AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH VERY INTENSE
RAINFALL. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN
FLANK OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHWEST MS...IS
ADVANCING GENERALLY NORTHWARD IN OFF THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHERN AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THERE HAS BEEN SOME GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION ACROSS THIS AREA AS SUGGESTED BY THE
COOLING CLOUD TOPS NEAR MOBILE BAY AND SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

VERY HIGH PWATS OF OVER 2.5 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
WILL FOSTER RAINFALL RATES THAT MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED 3
INCHES/HR. THE DEEPER LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO FOCUS DEEP MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE BANDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

VERY WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR RUNOFF
AND/OR FLASH FLOODING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS.
THE ORIENTATION OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDS AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR TRAINING CELLS WILL FOSTER ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AS
MUCH AS 5 INCHES THROUGH LATE-AFTERNOON...AND THUS FLASH FLOOD
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   31878719 31638664 31128626 30368621 30378625 
            30218729 30198777 30248810 30458836 30838835 
            31778796