MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0553
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
518 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MO TO NORTHERN IL 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 122115Z - 130315Z
 
SUMMARY...VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR CENTERED ALONG A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MAY FUEL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AFFORDED BY A SERIES OF IMPULSES
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST HAS RESULTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY.  ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PRODUCING A STRING OF LOW AMPLITUDE
WAVES THAT WILL HELP TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. 
EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED
AREA AS THE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
AFFORDED BY A WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL MO INTERACTS WITH
THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME COINCIDING WITH THE BOUNDARY.  DIFFLUENT
THICKNESS WITHIN THIS AREA SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR BACKWARD
PROPAGATING/TRAINING CONVECTION WHICH WOULD FURTHER ENHANCE THE
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.  LATEST MESOANALYSIS IS INDICATING PWS OF
2.3-2.5 INCHES ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHWESTERN MO TO
NORTHEASTERN IL...WITH MUCAPES BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG.  LATEST
1-MINUTE GOES-14 IR SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS ALONG A DEVELOPING
BAND OF CONVECTION THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL IL BACK THROUGH
CENTRAL MO...WHILE KILZ RADAR IS INDICATING RAINFALL RATES AS HIGH
1.5-2 INCHES/HR IN SOME OF THE DEVELOPING CELLS.  

FOR THE 6-HR PERIOD ENDING AT 03 UTC...THE 19 UTC OPERATIONAL AND
PARALLEL RUNS OF THE HRRR...AS WELL AS THE 12 UTC HRW-ARW AND
NMMMB ALL SHOW WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS AS MUCH AS 4-6 INCHES WITHIN THE
HIGHLIGHTED AREA. 

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...DVN...EAX...ILX...LOT...LSX...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   41408826 41308747 40338820 38889024 38029174 
            36999330 37959321 39119225 40449027