MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0554...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
826 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2016
 
CORRECTED FOR UPDATED GRAPHIC

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN LA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 130015Z - 130600Z
 
SUMMARY...HEAVY RAINS/FLASH FLOODING THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN MS AS
CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL INFLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION.  PWS REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH WITH THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWING PWS OF 2.4-2.7 INCHES
FROM SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL LA.  THE CONSENSUS OF THE HI-RES MODELS
IS FOR CONVECTION TO WANE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE REDEVELOPING ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTS
WITH THE REMNANT COLD POOL AND PERSISTENT MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING.
 FOR THE 00-06 UTC PERIOD...THE 12 UTC HRW-ARW AND NMMB ONLY SHOW
SCATTERED HEAVY AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA. 
HOWEVER...WITH 1-MIN GOES-14 IR IMAGERY CONTINUING TO SHOW COOLING
CLOUD TOPS AND KLIX INDICATION RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2.5 IN/HR IN
SOME LOCATIONS...SUSPECT THESE AMOUNTS ARE UNDERDONE.  THE 22 UTC
RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL AND PARALLEL RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE
MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY AMOUNTS...WITH WIDESPREAD
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES AND LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF
3-5 INCHES WITHIN THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA.  THESE AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY
TO BE PROBLEMATIC...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
THIRD OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA WHERE PROLIFIC AMOUNTS HAVE ALREADY
ACCUMULATED AND THE LATEST 1-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE
0.5 INCH OR LESS.    

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...

LAT...LON   30649076 29969065 29589122 29479160 29629257 
            30169290 30619272 30609165