MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0560
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
131 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN IN...WESTERN/NORTHERN OH 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 131725Z - 132225Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE WITH INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING WILL ELEVATE THE
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST GOES-14 1-MINUTE VISIBLE IMAGERY CONFIRMS
AN INCREASINGLY AGITATED CU/TCU FIELD OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OH...WITH A LARGE AMOUNT DEGREE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXPANDING IN COVERAGE FROM EASTERN IN AND SPREADING ACROSS
NORTHWEST OH. ALL OF THIS IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW IN VICINITY OF
THE FRONT COUPLED WITH IMPROVING 250 MB RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION JET
DYNAMICS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LARGER SCALE WIND FIELD IS HIGHLY
FAVORABLE FOR TRAINING CELLS AND AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE A
STRONG CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING.

PWATS ARE AS HIGH AS 2.25 TO 2.5 INCHES AND THE ONGOING CONVECTION
WILL BE ENCOUNTERING MLCAPE VALUES OF AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG WITH
THE AID OF ADDITIONAL DIABATIC HEATING. THUS...RAINFALL RATES WILL
BE VERY INTENSE AND MAY EXCEED 2.5 INCHES/HR.

THE REPEATING NATURE OF THE CELL ACTIVITY SHOULD PROMOTE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 INCHES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING AS A RESULT.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IND...IWX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   41848114 41518134 40968213 40068385 39438517 
            39958512 40188524 40528538 40868490 41338426 
            41698353 41638257 41738179