MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0561
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
212 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TX...SOUTHEAST
NM 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 131810Z - 140010Z
 
SUMMARY...POCKETS OF SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL FAVOR SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

DISCUSSION...THE PROXIMITY OF A FRONTAL ZONE ALONG WITH A DEEP
LAYER OF MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TX WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GIVEN A CONTINUATION OF STRONG DIABATIC HEATING THROUGH
SOLAR INSOLATION...CONVECTION SHOULD TEND TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY SOUTHWEST TO THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
OF TX...AND ALSO UP INTO SOUTHEAST NM WHERE THERE WILL BE
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE LATEST HRRR/HRRRP SUGGESTS AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO NECESSARILY BE WELL ORGANIZED...BUT
SOME PORTIONS OF THE THREAT AREA HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAINS OVER THE
LAST DAY...AND SO THESE ADDITIONAL RAINS MAY LEAD TO SOME
POTENTIAL FOR RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND/OR FLASH FLOODING.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34560460 34190397 32840394 31760365 31360308 
            31220227 31250096 31659989 32059856 31739777 
            31179767 30609850 30079922 29650008 29520095 
            29720175 29740224 29540270 29080318 29240405 
            29720466 30660521 31780568 32900574 33920542