MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0563
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
531 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...UPSTATE NY...SRN VT...SRN NH...MA...CT...RI 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 132131Z - 140331Z
 
SUMMARY...ANOMALOUS MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH FAVORABLE UPPER JET
FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT DEVELOPING CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. 

DISCUSSION...DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIRECT DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.  THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A SWATH OF 2.25 TO 2.5
INCH PWS EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES CENTERING NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 
MEANWHILE...MUCAPE ARE CURRENTLY 2000-3000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE
HIGHLIGHTED AREA.  THIS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTERACTING WITH
THE BROADER SCALE LIFT AFFORDED BY RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET
DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.  AMPLIFYING LOW LEVEL INFLOW ALONG WITH
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO ENCOURAGE DEVELOPING
CONVECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.  SLOW MOVING...MERGING CELLS WITH POSSIBLE TRAINING MAY
RAISE THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND RUNOFF
CONCERNS.

FOR THE 6-HR PERIOD ENDING AT 03 UTC...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
OPERATIONAL AND  PARALLEL HRRR HAVE SHOWN LOCALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL  NY AS WELL AS SOUTHERN VT/NH INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...BTV...BUF...GYX...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...

LAT...LON   44157415 43687379 43447348 43597264 43317188 
            42637152 41707143 42017305 42387485 42677861 
            43297789 43517623 43987522