MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0565
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1244 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN TX COAST...SOUTHWESTERN TO SOUTHERN
LA... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 140444Z - 140859Z
 
SUMMARY...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A DEVELOPING LINE OF
CONVECTION STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL COAST OF LA TO INLAND
LOCALES. THIS QUASI-STATIONARY BAND COULD LEAD TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FLASH FLOOD. THIS IS PARTICULARLY THE CASE
OVER AREAS OF LOWER FFG VALUES WHERE 15 TO 30 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
FALLEN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

DISCUSSION...WHILE MPD #0564 REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 07Z...DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO ORGANIZE EAST OF THIS AREA. THIS RENEWED
BATCH OF CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER AREAS WHICH HAVE RECEIVED
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS. RECENT 1-HR FFG VALUES
ARE QUITE LOW SUGGESTING THE SOILS HAVE NOT FULLY RECOVERED FROM
THE DELUGE OF HEAVY RAINFALL. MULTIPLE FLARE-UPS WERE NOTED ALONG
THE COAST AND JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL LA PER
RECENT GOES-14 SUPER-RAPID SCAN MINUTELY IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE
TOWERS CONTINUE TO PERCULATE AND SHOULD BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO.

A FEW MODELS AGREE ON THIS RECENT UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION. NAMELY...THE 12Z HRW-ARW/NSSL-WRF WERE REASONABLE
SOLUTIONS WHICH SUPPORT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH 09Z. 


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   31609179 30809105 29319152 29259305 28939431 
            28309521 28529596 28929576 29319512 30059385 
            31449315