MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0566
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
459 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN TX COAST...SOUTHERN LA... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 140859Z - 141259Z
 
SUMMARY...A STEADY BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD
FROM THE GULF COAST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL LA. GIVEN EXTREMELY
SATURATED SOILS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN LA...EXPECT FLASH FLOODING
TO BE LIKELY INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN ACTIVE NIGHT ALONG
THE UPPER TX COAST EXTENDING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL LA. WITHIN A
LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO THRIVE WITHIN A VERY
MOIST/UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THIS NORTH/SOUTH BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS AROUND 2.40 TO 2.65
INCHES VIA RECENT GPS DATA. HEAVILY DRIVEN BY WARM RAIN PROCESSES
PER 17000 KFT WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND A GENERAL LACK OF
LIGHTNING IN THE CONVECTION...HIGHLY EFFICIENT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFORD 1 TO 1.50 INCH HOURLY RATES WITHIN THIS BAND.

FARTHER WEST...EAST-WEST TRAINING HAS BEEN OBSERVED SOUTH OF I-10
ACROSS JACKSON/LAVACA/WHARTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TX. THIS HAS
OCCURRED ALONG A STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE CORFIDI VECTORS
ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. EXPECT THIS TO BE AN ISSUE GIVEN THE
CONTINUED ADVECTION OF HIGH-CAPE AIR FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST
VIA SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NOTED IN LOCAL VWP DATA. THE LATEST
07Z HRRR-PARALLEL RUN SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THROUGH
12Z WITH 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS POSSIBLE. AN OBSERVATION IN
THE MESONET INDICATED 4 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN 2 HOURS WHICH DOES
APPEAR REASONABLE GIVEN THE CONTINUED TRAINING OVER THE AREA. AS
SUCH...THESE KINDS OF RAINFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE ON A MORE
LOCALIZED BASIS.


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   31719212 31629111 30779084 28969079 28519151 
            29039318 28849447 28379568 27809677 27859785 
            28829803 29369745 29559650 29629558 29809469 
            29999397 30529299 31379251