MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0568
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
748 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX...WESTERN LA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 141145Z - 141745Z
 
SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...BROKEN CLUSTERS OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX AND EXTEND NORTHEAST UP ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN LA. THE CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAKLY CONFLUENT LOW
LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE FAR SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE SLOWLY EXITING LOW
CIRCULATION OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO PROXIMITY OF A
STATIONARY FRONT HELPING TO PROVIDE FOR THE POOLING OF VERY DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE.

PWATS OVER THE REGION ARE GENERALLY OVER 2.25 INCHES...AND THIS
CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL INFLOW OFF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO. RAINFALL RATES AGAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY HIGH
AS A RESULT...AND IN SOME CASES EXCEEDING 2.5 INCHES/HR WHERE MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CAN FOCUS.

THE LATEST HRRR/HRRRP GUIDANCE INDICATES MULTIPLE SEMI-ORGANIZED
BANDS OF CONVECTION PERSISTING THROUGH THE MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST
TX AND INTO PARTS OF WESTERN LA WHERE SOME AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN
VERY HEAVY RAINS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE ADDITIONAL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO
RESULT IN SOME ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   32119297 31739208 30769261 29819383 29229495 
            28749585 28489647 28489703 28759772 29439805 
            29799792 30389726 30749609 31209484