MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0569
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1206 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN MO/SOUTHERN IL/SOUTHWESTERN
IN/WESTERN KY... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 150405Z - 150805Z
 
SUMMARY...HIGH PWAT AIR POOLING ALONG A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN A FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS WILL PARTICULARLY
BE THE CASE ALONG AN INFLECTION POINT OVER FAR EASTERN MO/SOUTHERN
IL WHERE CONVECTION MAY FOCUS MORE. WHILE LIMITED BY LOWER END
INSTABILITY...RAINFALL RATES MAY APPROACH AN INCH WITHIN A FEW OF
THE MORE ROBUST PRECIPITATION CORES.

DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD BAND OF SHOWERS LIFTING
INTO EASTERN MO/SOUTHERN IL/WESTERN KY. CURRENT 1-HOUR RAINFALL
HAVE STRUGGLED TO EXCEED 0.65 INCHES WHICH SHOULD SOMEWHAT LIMIT
THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. IF SUCH RATES WERE TO COME UP
SOME...THIS WOULD APPROACH LOCAL FFG VALUES ACROSS SOUTHERN
IL/SOUTHWESTERN IN. THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS WORKING WITH A RATHER
WEAK INSTABILITY POOL AS THE 03Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWED
ONLY 250 TO 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER THE REGION. WHAT THIS SYSTEM
DOES HAVE WORKING IN ITS FAVOR IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH PWATS
OVER 2 INCHES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL INFLOW WITH 20
KNOTS INDICATED IN THE VAD-WIND PROFILER OUT OF EVANSVILLE IN.
RECENT RAP RUNS DO SHOW THIS INCREASING OVERNIGHT TO PERHAPS 30
KNOTS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WARM ADVECTION PROCESS
SHOULD AID IN FURTHER EXPANSION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
MOST OF THE RECENT CAMS SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL THROUGH 09Z WITH LOCAL POCKETS OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. WHILE A LONGER DURATION EVENT...THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FLASH FLOOD OR TWO. 

RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   39078847 38908698 38158621 37098673 37018758 
            36998884 36719016 37129114 38699025