MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0572
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
614 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 162213Z - 170330Z
 
SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY DEVELOP THROUGH 00Z
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND NRN NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND.
REPEATING CELL MOTIONS COULD ALLOW 3 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3
INCHES.

DISCUSSION...22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS ESTIMATED A LOW JUST SE OF
GEORGIAN BAY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESE THROUGH N-CNTRL NY
INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 80-90F SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
HAVE HELPED CONTRIBUTE TO AN ESTIMATED MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG
OVER CNTRL NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. 

TWO LOOSELY GROUPED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE IDENTIFIED AT
22Z...ONE JUST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE OTHER SOUTH OF
BUF...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WHILE OBSERVED STORM MOTIONS IN WRN
NY HAVE BEEN PROGRESSIVE TOWARD THE ENE AT 35-45 KTS...THE GROWING
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN WRN NY/PA IS
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE TOWARD A WEAKLY DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTH
OF THE CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY LOCATED IN CNTRL NY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
WHICH MAY PROMOTE REPEATING ELEMENTS OF CONVECTION.

THE VAD WIND PROFILE FROM KBUF SHOWED 45-50 KTS BETWEEN 925 AND
850 MB FROM THE WSW...LOCATED WITHIN A REGION OF STRONGER LOW
LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE EAST WITH EWD TRANSLATION OF THE
SURFACE LOW...AND WHILE WEAKER TO THE SOUTH...BETWEEN BGM AND
ALB...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE FOR
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF REPEATING RAINFALL HERE AS WELL. 

THE ENTIRE REGION FROM CNTRL AND NRN NY INTO VERMONT COULD SEE 2-3
INCHES IN 3 HOURS. DESPITE PROGRESSIVE INDIVIDUAL STORM
MOTIONS...AREA PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BTV...BUF...GYX...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...

LAT...LON   44627206 43997151 43197326 42737535 42897728 
            43317753 43837733 44607492 
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