MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0577
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN NORTH TEXAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 181845Z - 182315Z
 
SUMMARY...SHORT TERM BACKBUILDING AND REPEATING ACROSS SATURATED
SOILS FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY POSE FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS. 

DISCUSSION...GOES-14 SRSO INDICATES AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
VIGOR ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS
AN AREA AFFECTED BY 2-3" OF RAIN EARLIER THIS MORNING.  WV LOOP
INDICATES THE CONVECTIVE AREA IS LOCATED IN A WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AT THE TAIL END OF EXITING SHORTWAVE ACROSS E KS AND WAVE
ACROSS N CHIHUAHUA...SUPPORTING A LOCALIZED INCREASE IN DIVERGENCE
AND OUTFLOW.  ADDITIONALLY 850-700MB FLOW IS TURNING
ANTICYCLONICALLY FROM THE MST TRANSPORT UP THE RIO GRANDE ACROSS
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU CONVERGING WITH WESTERLY FLOW OUT OF SE NM PER
THE RAP ANALYSIS.  THE INCREASED 20-25KT FLOW FROM THE SW ALSO
SUPPORT AN UPSTREAM BACKBUILDING ENVIRONMENT TO ALLOW FOR
COMPOUNDING TOTALS WHILE REPEATING OVER AREAS AFFECTED IN
THROCKMORTON/SHACKELFORD AND STEPHENS COUNTIES.  RAP ANALYSIS ALSO
INDICATES LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF INSTABILITY WITH VALUES OVER 2000
J/KG IN THE AREA AND UPSTREAM TO MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE VIGOR IN THE
NEAR TERM.  MOISTURE HAS ALSO BEEN POOLING REACHING UP TO 2.0"
SUGGESTING HIGHLY EFFICIENT WARM RAINFALL PROCESSES OCCURRING. 
THE HRRR PARALLEL AND EXPERIMENTAL (FROM ESRL) BOTH ARE SUGGESTIVE
OF MAINTAINING THE BACKBUILDING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH 20-21Z BEFORE
BECOMING OUTFLOW DOMINANT TOWARD THE S AND SE WITH AN ADDITIONAL
2-3".  THOUGH AREAL THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING MAY BE LIMITED...HIGH
RAINFALL EFFICIENCY COULD INCREASE AMOUNTS A BIT HIGHER AS
WELL...POSING THE INCREASED THREAT.  

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   33879891 33649764 33219748 32809776 32649816 
            32579917 33210051 33730012