MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0580
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
554 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...ERN KS INTO WRN MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 192154Z - 200354Z
 
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING HEAVY RAIN WILL INCREASE
AFTER 00Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS...NRN OK INTO WRN MO. 3 HR
RAINFALL RATES OF 3-4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 2130Z SHOWED A LOW LEVEL
VORTICITY MAX JUST WEST OF PTT...CONNECTED TO A LOW-MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED ALONG A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD FROM A SURFACE LOW LOCATED
BETWEEN PTT AND GBD...WHILE CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. 

ESTIMATED INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR WAS 1000-2000 J/KG ALONG
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES OVER S-CNTRL
KS. WHILE ONLY WEAKLY ANOMALOUS...THIS ENVIRONMENT IS MORE THAN
SUPPORTIVE OF RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR. AS AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER NE AND CO CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SWED
LATE THIS EVENING...CONVECTION OVER NRN KS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SEWD WHILE FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE WSW
OVER ERN AND SERN KS. 850 MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FROM
ITS CURRENT MAGNITUDE OF 10-15 KTS OVER SERN KS TO 25-30 KTS IN
THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME.  ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER SERN KS AS THE INFLOW SOURCE REGION WILL
BE FROM A POOL OF INSTABILITY IN NRN OK. THE OVERALL GRADUAL
INCREASE OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING SHOULD LEAD TO A FLASH FLOOD THREAT FROM THE KS/OK BORDER
INTO FAR WRN MISSOURI LATE THIS EVENING.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...EAX...ICT...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   38809602 38659501 38029433 37319421 36889535 
            36599729 36449958 36559995 36890012 37189991 
            37379935 38109866 38729727