MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0598
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
929 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST NM...PORTIONS OF WEST TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 240130Z - 240630Z
 
SUMMARY...AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NM AND WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON...TRAINING CONVECTION AND
RELATIVELY SLOW CELL MOVEMENT COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM
AND WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION IS FORMING IN AN AXIS
OF 1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE (PER THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS). A 20 TO
25 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW IS HELPING TO TRANSPORT 1.25 TO
1.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR (WHICH IS ABOUT TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN PLACE. THE
DEVELOPING CONVECTION IS PRODUCING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR 1.50
INCHES...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER IN MEXICO. 

THE CONVECTION IS TRACKING NORTHEAST WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW
(AHEAD OF A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS AZ)...AND THIS IS
ORGANIZING THE CONVECTION INTO LINES ACROSS THE REGION. THE QUASI
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
CONVECTIVE STREETS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM AND WEST TX INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. 

AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS...THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THE INCREASING COVERAGE COULD
RESULT IN TRAINING CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM AND
FAR WEST TX. MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1.00 AND 2.00 INCHES... WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHEAST NM AND FAR WEST TX. ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THIS AREA...AND GIVE THE THREAT FOR TRAINING...THESE VALUES
LOOK ATTAINABLE. THUS...FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED POSSIBLE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34660075 34470012 33950029 32890108 31080266 
            30560398 30840504 30690489 31310559 32370552 
            32410550 32540528 32840478 33730336 34530159