MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0599
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
107 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN IA...NORTHERN MO...SOUTHEAST
NE...NORTHEAST KS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 240506Z - 241100Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO LEADING TO A
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN MO
AND SOUTHERN IA IN A REGION WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE
STRENGTHENING TO SPEEDS AT OR ABOVE 40 KTS.  AT 05Z...RADAR SHOWED
TWO DISTINCT CONVECTIVE AREAS WITH ONE SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IA WHILE STORMS OVER NORTHEAST KS WAS
MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST AND APPROACHING THE KC METRO AREA. 
THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS THESE STORMS INTERACT AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
THE INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE AND CELL MOTION WHICH BEGINS TO
PARALLEL THE MEAN FLOW.

THE OUTLOOK AREA IS CLOSE TO THE HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR RUNS
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  SHORT TERM TRENDS IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY TENDS TO SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PCPN
SHOWN BY THE ARW WILL END UP BEING TOO FAR NORTH. 

FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA IS FAIRLY HIGH...ON THE
ORDER OF 3 INCHES PER 3 HOURS.  EVEN SO...GIVEN THE RAINFALL
INTENSITY ALREADY SEEN OVER PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR TRAINING/REPEAT CONVECTION...THINK THAT THE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING IS LIKELY IN THIS AREA.

BANN

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...LSX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   41289469 41019194 39539176 39119442 39429611 
            40669667 41209587