MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0601
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
450 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IN INTO NORTHWEST OH 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 242050Z - 250000Z
 
SUMMARY...NEWLY DEVELOPING CONVECTION COULD POSE A SHORT TERM
FLASH FLOOD THREAT DUE TO TRAINING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN IN INTO NORTHWEST OH INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. 

DISCUSSION...INITIAL STRONG CONVECTION TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL IN PRODUCED HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR 1.50 INCHES.
THE CONVECTION FORMED IN A POOL OF 2.00+ INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AIR (PER THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND BLENDED TPW PRODUCT)...WHERE
MLCAPE VALUES AVERAGED BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG IN A STRIPE FROM
SOUTHERN IL INTO FAR NORTHWEST OH.

SO FAR...THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN DISCRETE AND SEVERE WEATHER
DOMINATED...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS. HOWEVER...AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS WITH TIME...WARM RAIN
PROCESSES BECOME MORE IMPORTANT IN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AIRMASS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS FORMING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL IN BEHIND THE INITIAL BATCH OF STRONG
CONVECTION. THE NEWLY FORMING CONVECTION HAS ACCESS TO HIGH
INSTABILITY AIR FROM SOUTHERN IL...AND THE MID LEVEL FLOW WOULD
TRACK THE NEW CONVECTION OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL
EARLIER. 

THE LATEST HRRR/EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SHOWED STRIPES OF LOCAL 2-4 INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IN (MAINLY NORTH OF 40
N LATITUDE)...WITH ADDITIONAL STRIPES OF 1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES OF
RAINFALL EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST IN AND NEARBY NORTHWEST OH. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER...THE MAIN THREAT COULD BE SHORT TERM
TRAINING...AS CORFIDI VECTORS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED WITH WITH THE
MID LEVEL FLOW. 

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...ILN...IND...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   42088339 41338332 40348415 39788472 39388528 
            39148619 39618721 40518745 41018728 41778617 
            42058449