MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0603
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
905 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KS...NORTHERN MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 250105Z - 250600Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS DEVELOPING IN A HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIRMASS WILL TRACK ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. HIGH
RAINFALL RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ALONG THE FRONT
COULD POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. 

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ARE FORMING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM EASTERN IA INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KS. THE IR LOOP SHOWED COOLING TOPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN KS (WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -65
CELSIUS)...AND THE CLUSTERS ARE TRACKING NORTHEAST IN THE DEEP MID
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. 

THE CONVECTION IS FORMING/MOVING ALONG AN AXIS OF 2000-3000 J/KG
MLCAPE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST IA INTO CENTRAL OK (THE 00Z SGF
SOUNDING SHOWED AN SBCAPE VALUE NEAR 3000 J/KG. THE CLUSTERS ARE
CURRENTLY COMPOSED PRIMARILY OF DISCRETE CELLS...AND THE
CONVECTIVE CURRENT MODE IS OUTFLOW DOMINATED (NOT SURPRISING BASED
ON THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE 00Z SGF
SOUNDING). 

THE CLUSTERS ARE FEEDING OFF A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME (WITH ITS
SOURCE REGION JUST SOUTH THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA)... AND THE
LATEST BLENDED TPW PRODUCT/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A LONG AXIS OF
1.75/2.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR JUST AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. THE KTOP RADAR INDICATED HOURLY RAINFALL
RATES NEAR 1.50 INCHES IN THIS MOISTURE TONGUE. 

THERE WAS FAIRLY GOOD HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KS INTO NORTHERN MO AND FAR SOUTHERN IA.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT AN MCS COULD FORM ON THE NOSE OF A
25 TO 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET ACROSS NORTHERN MO...
PROBABLY AFTER 04Z. AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS WITH TIME...THE
CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE OF A FLASH FLOOD THREAT...AS
WARM RAIN PROCESSES BECOME MORE IMPORTANT. 

IN ADDITION...CORFIDI VECTORS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE
850-300 MB MEAN WIND WITH TIME...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING. THE COMBINATION OF TRAINING AND RAINFALL RATES AS HIGH
AS 2.00 INCHES AN HOUR COULD RESULT IN RAINFALL TOTAL S BETWEEN
2.00 TO 4.00 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT ACROSS NORTHERN MO
(THESE VALUES ARE IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR/12Z NSSL WRF). THIS
COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. 

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...DVN...EAX...ICT...LSX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   40659130 40069137 38659384 38289440 37159664 
            37329780 38159737 39629574 40089483 40559285