MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0604
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
818 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE INTO PARTS OF NM AND OK 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 260017Z - 260317Z
 
SUMMARY...MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4
HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A NARROW PLUME OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT...
OF 1.5 TO 2 INCH PWS... STRETCHES FROM WEST TX UP THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE AND ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE. THIS IS
GENERALLY ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM EAST TX TO THE MID-ATL SEABOARD AND THE LEADING
EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING AND INCREASING INSTABILITY HAS RESULTED IN A NARROW NORTH
TO SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AND A NE TO SW
LINE OF MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONT. THESE
CELLS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PULSE UP AND DOWN WHILE POSSIBLY
MERGING AND COULD RESULT IN LOCAL 1-2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS PER
HOUR. THE MAJORITY OF HI-RES MODELS IS HANDLING THE ACTIVITY NEAR
THE FRONTAL ZONE RATHER WELL BUT WILL NEED A PASS ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH. WPC EXPECTS THE MAJORITY OF THESE CONVECTIVE HEAVY
RAIN CELLS TO FADE OVER TIME AND POSSIBLY GIVE WAY TO SOMETHING
MORE NOCTURNALLY ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO
WEST OK.

MUSHER

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...MAF...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36370003 36219819 34939947 34400081 33840183 
            32760203 31530242 30630288 30890327 32290324 
            33730380 34890460 35410417 35090316 35700216 
            36180099