MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0605
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
304 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KS...WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 260700Z - 261200Z
 
SUMMARY...SOME TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH DAWN. SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF VERY COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION IS MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KS VERY EARLY THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH
SOME EMBEDDED OVERSHOOTING TOPS. THE ACTIVITY IS STRONGEST JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF CHANUTE WHERE DUAL-POL RADAR ESTIMATES ARE OVER 3
INCHES/HR. THIS ALSO COINCIDES WITH WHERE OVERSHOOTING TOP
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THE LAST 30 TO 45 MINUTES...WITH
CONVECTIVE TOPS AS COLD AS -70C.

THE CONVECTION IS FOCUSING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT...WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST UP ALONG IT.
SOUTHERLY INFLOW INTO THE BOUNDARY IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AT
GENERALLY 20 TO 25 KTS AT 850 MB AS PER VAD WIND PROFILER
DATA...BUT THERE IS AN AXIS OF RELATIVELY FAVORABLE RIGHT-ENTRANCE
REGION JET DYNAMICS OVERHEAD IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT.

THE AIRMASS IS ALSO RATHER MOIST WITH PWATS OF CLOSE TO 2 INCHES
WHICH WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER MODEST WITH ONLY ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE...BUT THERE IS SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS GOING
TOWARD DAWN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 INCHES IN JUST
A COUPLE OF HOURS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AND THE SW/NE ORIENTATION
OF THE CONVECTION DOES FAVOR SOME CELL TRAINING WHICH WOULD
ENHANCED AMOUNTS.

SOME OF THESE RAINS WILL BE FALLING OVER AREAS THAT SAW SOME
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...AND SO THE RELATIVELY WET ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLASH FLOODING THIS
MORNING.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   40009331 39979232 39499231 39209253 38859313 
            38439395 37959507 37609634 37709706 38229727 
            38759669 39299564 39759444