MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0606
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
503 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST KS/NORTHWEST MO/SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST
IA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 262102Z - 270302Z
 
SUMMARY...DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN KS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER TIME AND LIKELY TO PRODUCE
INTENSE RAIN RATES FOR FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.

DISCUSSION...A DEEP PLUME OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... JUST BELOW 2
INCH PWS... STRETCHING ACROSS THE CORN BELT IS CO-LOCATED WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. THESE RELATIVELY STATIONARY FEATURES ARE
BEGINNING TO CLASH WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND SHORT WAVE
TROUGH EMERGING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE SHEAR AXIS IS IN
PLACE FROM SOUTHEAST NE THROUGH CENTRAL KS OR WHERE DEVELOPING
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME MUCH MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE 12Z ARW/NMMB AND NSSLWRF ALL INDICATE A
CLUSTER OF CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL FORM AND TRANSITION DOWNSTREAM
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH 00Z/27. GIVEN THE MOISTURE POOL AND SOME
MODELS SUGGESTING UNI-DIRECTIONAL FLOW ON THE TAIL END OF THE
CLUSTER COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE RATES OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR.
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS ALSO RELATIVELY LOW INCREASING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED CONCERNS FOR RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODS.


MUSHER 

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...ICT...OAX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   42439281 41779275 41099368 40139349 38769464 
            37499509 37059589 37619611 38159557 38759526 
            38939563 38809627 38769725 39239753 39989665 
            40599676 40849666 40869663 42039461