MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0607
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1030 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN KS...NORTHERN MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 270230Z - 270600Z
 
SUMMARY...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE KANSAS
CITY METROPOLITAN AREA. ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS
CONTINUING TO COOL JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE KANSAS CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SW/NE ORIENTED LINE OF
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. THE ACTIVITY IS FOCUSING OUT AHEAD OF A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL ZONE THAT IS SITUATED ACROSS THE
LOWER MO VALLEY WHERE A SUBSTANTIAL POOL OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IS NOTED. PWATS ARE ABOVE 1.75 INCHES...AND THE
CONVECTION IS FOCUSING ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF AN INSTABILITY
GRADIENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG.

IR/WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOUD TOPS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT
WHICH APPEARS TO BE TIED TO THE APPROACH OF A WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS...FAR SOUTHEAST NE
AND INTO SOUTHWEST IA. THIS SUGGESTS INCREASINGLY STRONG LARGE
SCALE ASCENT FROM JET DYNAMICS AND THIS ENHANCED FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE THREAT OVER PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KS AND ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN MO OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. RAINFALL RATES WILL BE VERY INTENSE WITH RATES APPROACHING
OR EXCEEDING 2 INCHES/HR.

A COMBINATION OF WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND A FAVORABLE SET-UP
FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 

THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN ADDITIONAL RISK OF 3 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 06Z...AND THIS WILL INCLUDE THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN SUBURBS OF THE KANSAS CITY METROPOLITAN AREA...ALONG
WITH ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHERN MO. FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...DVN...EAX...LSX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   40489261 40279175 39329266 38669447 38629513 
            38939531 39719442