MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0610
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
548 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST KS...NORTHWEST MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 270945Z - 271230Z
 
SUMMARY...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE EAST THIS
MORNING OVER AREAS THAT SAW VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. ADDITIONAL RUNOFF AND/OR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

DISCUSSION...A PROGRESSIVE CONVECTIVE SEGMENT SEEN IN RADAR
ADVANCING TOWARD NORTHEAST KS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NEB SOUTHWEST BACK INTO WESTERN KS.
THE CONVECTION IS BEING HIGHLY FACILITATED BY THE STRONGER
DYNAMICS/FORCING ALOFT...AS INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTIVE
LINE IS VERY MODEST WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. LOW
LEVEL JET ENERGY IS RATHER MODEST TOO WITH GENERALLY SOUTHWEST 850
MB FLOW OF 20 TO 30 KTS.

NEVERTHELESS...THE CONVECTION IS STEADILY MOVING EAST AND
APPROACHING AREAS OF NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST MO THAT HAVE SEEN
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE KANSAS CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA IN PARTICULAR SAW AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
RAIN IN A FEW HOURS LAST EVENING...AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON
KANSAS CITY AND THE ADJACENT SUBURBS MAY RESULT IN IMMEDIATE
RUNOFF AND CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

EXPECT AS MUCH AS 1 INCH OF NEW RAINFALL AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   40049408 39889348 39459343 39079392 38919464 
            38789515 38789586 38989618 39319613 39799596 
            39979525