MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0615...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1053 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016
 
CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST NM...WEST TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 290252Z - 290630Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST NM AND INTO
WESTERN TX MAY RESULT IN SOME RUNOFF/FLASH FLOOD PROBLEMS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

DISCUSSION...CLOUDS TOPS HAVE BEEN COOLING OVER SOUTHEAST NM IN
THE VICINITY OF HOBBS..AND EXTENDING EAST INTO WEST TX TOP THE
SOUTH OF LUBBOCK. THE CONVECTION IS FOCUSING IN A RELATIVELY
DIVERGENT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT OUT AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL LOW
CENTER/TROUGH SITUATED OVER NORTHWEST NM. THERE IS A LEE-SIDE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN NM WHICH HAS ALSO ALLOWED FOR THE POOLING OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND SOME MODEST INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION. THE
LATEST VAD WIND PROFILER DATA FROM KMAF SHOWS E/SE 850/700MB LAYER
FLOW ON THE ORDER OF NEARLY 30 KTS WHICH WILL TEND TO SUSTAIN THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION AT LEAST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS.

GPS-DERIVED PWATS ARE NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE THREAT
AREA...WHICH WILL SUPPORT RAINFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 2
INCHES/HR...AND ESPECIALLY WITH THE CLOUD TOPS STILL COOLING. THE
SLOW CELL MOTION OVER THE REGION COUPLED WITH THE HIGH RAINFALL
RATES SHOULD PROMOTE SOME SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...WITH
STORM TOTALS OF AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 INCHES LOCALLY THROUGH 06Z.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34510254 34320201 33430146 32580190 32100264 
            31780343 31570428 31760452 32390442 33360414 
            34070359 34420312