MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0616
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
101 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL CO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 290500Z - 290900Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING CONVECTIVE TOPS
DOWN SOUTH OF THE FRONT RANGE OVER EAST-CENTRAL CO AND ADJACENT
AREAS OF THE PALMER DIVIDE. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE
BEEN NOTED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THE CONVECTION HAS
BEEN TENDING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN RELATION TO
INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER NORTHERN NM.

THE CONVECTION IS BEING AIDED BY THE PRESENCE OF MODESTLY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO AND
INTO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MLCAPE VALUES OF
500 TO 1000 J/KG ARE NOTED WITH THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS.

THE LATEST NCEP HRRR AND ESRL HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST AN ADDITIONAL
1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO CONCERNS
FOR SOME FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LAST COUPLE
OF HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39500405 39350350 39060335 38190379 37680412 
            37480444 37330477 37410500 37570511 38000519 
            38240515 38990520 39410474