MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0618
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
308 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WEST TX INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...FAR
SOUTHEAST NM 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 291905Z - 300005Z
 
SUMMARY...TRAINING CONVECTION FORMING IN A HIGH MOISTURE
ENVIRONMENT COULD RESULT IN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST TX INTO THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. 

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADARS ARE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS WEST TX INTO THE TX PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH TOPS SLOWLY COOLING ON THE LATEST IR LOOP. THE
CONVECTION IS POPPING UP AS THE LAST OF THE CIN IS ERASED...IN AN
AXIS OF 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE. DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
SUPPLIED BY A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW... TRANSPORTING 1.75 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER INTO THIS REGION. THE KMAF RADAR RECENTLY
SHOWED HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR 2.50 INCHES IN A CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER OVER ANDREWS COUNTY.

THE LATEST RAP SUGGESTS THAT INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL TO
LOCALLY MODERATE (WITH MUCAPE VALUES HOVERING BETWEEN 1000-2000
J/KG) THROUGH ABOUT 23Z FROM NEAR KAMA SOUTH TO NEAR K6R6. THE
MOISTURE SUPPLY REMAINS CONSISTENT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAINING NEAR 1.75 INCHES. THE FORECAST QUESTION THAT
REMAINS IS JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THE CONVECTION BECOMES IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT. THE LATEST HRRR AND 12Z NSSL WRF SUGGESTS THAT THE
ACTIVITY REMAINS SCATTERED...PEAKING BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. BOTH MODELS
SHOWED LOCAL 2.00-3.00 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN THE
ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS. 

THE MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PUSH THE CONVECTION SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH
TIME...BUT WEAK MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN SLOW STORM
MOTIONS. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR 1.50 INCHES IN THE BETTER
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS COULD RESULT IN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN AREAS
WITH LOWER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES (WHERE ONE HOUR VALUES ARE
AS LOW AS 1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES). THE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AFTER 23Z...WHEN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
INSTABILITY BECOMES A LIMITING FACTOR FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.

HAYES 

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   35080233 34520170 32160173 29800228 30300306 
            31460342 33960336 35040272