MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0622
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1012 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 310210Z - 310610Z
 
SUMMARY...SEVERAL CELL-MERGERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS...WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF RATHER DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOCUSED OVER SOUTHEAST KS THAT ARE PRODUCING INTENSE RAINFALL.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME FURTHER COOLING OF CONVECTIVE TOPS OVER THE
LAST HOUR...AND THE GOES-OTD ALGORITHM DOES INDICATED A FEW
OVERSHOOTING TOPS WHICH IS CONFIRMING THE DEGREE OF STRONG
VERTICAL ASCENT.

PWATS ARE OVER THE REGION ARE VERY HIGH WITH PWATS OVER 2
INCHES...AND A RATHER DEEP MOIST COLUMN NOTED VIA THE CIRA-LPW
PRODUCT. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES THAT
WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES.

SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
CELL-MERGERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITHIN WHAT IS AN
OTHERWISE WEAK STEERING FLOW PATTERN. LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO THESE
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY WEAK AT ONLY 10 TO 20 KTS AS
SEEN IN AREA VAD WIND PROFILER DATA. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION IS
GENERALLY EMBEDDED WITHIN ABOUT 1500 J/KG OF OF MLCAPE WHICH
CONFIRMS A MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.

THE INSTABILITY WILL BE GRADUALLY EXPENDED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THUS THE CONVECTION
SHOULD WEAKEN TOWARD OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT THE
POTENTIAL FOR 2.5 INCH/HR RAIN RATES GIVEN THE CELL MERGER AND
OVERSHOOTING TOP ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL STORM TOTALS THROUGH 06Z OF
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...AND THUS SOME FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   38609594 38599531 38349484 37459456 37069474 
            36989524 36959593 36929651 37009746 37369744 
            38069697 38419652 
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