MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0628
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
143 AM EDT FRI SEP 02 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 020545Z - 021145Z
 
SUMMARY...SOUTHERN OUTER BAND OF HURRICANE HERMINE.

DISCUSSION...GOES-EAST AND RADAR MOSAIC LOOPS SHOW HURRICANE
HERMINE CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL IN EASTERN FL PANHANDLE AND WILL
STEADILY LIFT NNE THROUGH THE NEXT 6HRS OR SO. 
CONCURRENTLY...OUTER RAIN BAND IS ORIENTED SW-NE FOCUSED INTO
LEVY/CITRUS COUNTY WITH STRONG 850MB FLUX CONFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED
ALONG THIS BAND AS BOTH CORRIDORS OF DEEPER CONVECTION HAVE MELDED
AND PRESENT INCREASED RAINFALL EFFICIENCY WITH RATES UP TO 1.5"
EVEN THOUGH IR TRENDS ARE WARMING IN GENERAL AND WANING UPDRAFT
VIGOR LIMITED TO DYNAMIC FORCING.  AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND AWAY THE CONFLUENCE AREA/OUTER BAND WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD BECOMING SLOWER WITH TIME AS SUCH
INCREASING DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW/HVY RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD 12Z. 
CONCURRENT IN TIMING TO THIS SLOWING SOUTHWARD DRIFT OF THE
BAND...PEAK PRE-DAWN FORCING SHOULD TAP HIGHER OFFSHORE
INSTABILITY FOR INCREASED CONVECTIVE VIGOR EVEN AS THE LOW LEVEL
INFLOW INTO THE CONFLUENCE ZONE REDUCES IN TIME.  STILL THE RAP
FORECAST CONTINUE TO SUGGEST 40-50KT 850MB FLOW THROUGH 12Z
DIRECTED THROUGH THE OUTER BAND SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING
TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO HVY RAINFALL RATES.  THIS COLLOCATED WITH
A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF LOCATION/POSITION OF THE BAND ACROSS THE
URBAN CENTER OF HILLSBOROUGH/PINELLAS AND MANATEE COUNTIES ALREADY
SATURATED BY EARLIER EVENT THIS WEEK MAY POSE A FLASH FLOODING
CONCERN OR AT VERY LEAST A PROLONGED INUNDATION FLOODING CONCERN
(ESPECIALLY GIVEN LIMIT RIVER OUTFLOW DUE TO OUTLETS BEING BACKED
UP FROM ONSHORE SURGE/MASS PILING.  

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   29558233 29518198 29178172 28648183 27988193 
            27388209 27118231 27088248 27428271 27748291 
            27908293 28358284 28908266 29408254