MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0629
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
218 AM EDT FRI SEP 02 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST GA...SOUTHWEST SC...EXT NORTHEAST
FLORIDA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 020615Z - 021215Z
 
SUMMARY...FLOODING CONCERNS NEAR CENTER OF HRCN HERMINE AND
CONVECTIVE CELLS IN OUTER BANDS EXTENDING NORTHEAST ALONG
DEFORMATION ZONE. 

DISCUSSION...RADAR AND IR LOOP SHOWS EYE OF HRCN HERMINE HAS MADE
LANDFALL AND IS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OF
FL TOWARD S CENTRAL GA ATTM.  IR ALSO INDICATED A CONVECTIVE BURST
NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF HERMINE DRIVEN BY THE
STRONGEST SFC CONVERGENCE WITH NEARLY 90 DEGREES OF HIGH MOISTURE
FLUX DIRECTED TOWARD THE NE SIDE OF THE CENTER.  ALOFT STRONG
ANTICYCLONIC RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GA WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE
DYNAMICS FROM POLAR JET ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING TO DUALLY
AFFECT THE BAROCLINIC LEAF/SHIELD ALONG THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN
SIDE OF HERMINE'S CIRCULATION PROVIDING STRONG BROAD SCALE
ASCENT...FOR A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HVY SHIELD PRECIPITATION
THAT SOAK THE GROUNDS WITH .5"/HR OR GREATER RATES PRECURSORY TO
THE DEEPER CONVECTION NEARER THE SURFACE CIRCULATION AS IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD WITH 1.5-2"/HR RATES. 

FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS EXT E GA TOWARD SW SC...IR TOPS INDICATE
RAPIDLY COOLING AND EXPANDING TOWERS OVER JUST OFFSHORE ALONG
THESE OUTER BANDS.  STRONGLY FOCUSED LOW LEVEL INFLOW CHANNELED
ALONG THE COAST FED BY HIGH ENERGY GULF STREAM WARM WATERS SUPPORT
NARROW SKINNY PROFILES EVEN WITH HIGH SBCAPES IN THE 3000 J/KG
RANGE AND FLUX MAY SUPPORT RATES IN EXCESS OF 3"/HR THOUGH CELL
MOTIONS SHOULD BE RAPID TOWARD THE NORTH. UPSTREAM REDEVELOPMENT
ALONG THESE OUTER BANDS ALONG WITH FAIRLY SUPPORTIVE NORTHERLY
CELL MOTION VECTORS  COULD POSE TRAINING ORIENTATION ALONG BAND. 
HI-RES CAMS SUCH AS RECENT FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE 00Z ARW
ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SCENARIO SUGGESTING TOTALS OVER 3-5" IN THE
NEXT 6HRS POSING A FLASH FLOODING CONCERN IN THIS VICINITY AS
WELL. 

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   33618091 32807976 31358109 30268160 30598269 
            30268352 30428432 31448436 32658318 33338224