MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0630
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
814 AM EDT FRI SEP 02 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 021213Z - 021805Z
 
SUMMARY...SOUTHERN OUTER BAND OF HURRICANE HERMINE.

DISCUSSION...GOES-EAST AND RADAR MOSAIC LOOPS SHOWED THE CENTER OF
HURRICANE HERMINE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN GA AS OF 1145Z. 
HERMINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE STEADILY TOWARDS THE NORTH
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING.  CONCURRENTLY...AN OUTER RAIN BAND
IS ORIENTED SW-NE FOCUSED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO LEVY/CITRUS
COUNTY WITH STRONG 850MB FLUX MAXIMIZED ALONG THIS BAND WHERE
MULTIPLE CORRIDORS OF DEEPER CONVECTION HAVE MELDED AND PRESENT
INCREASED RAINFALL EFFICIENCY.  SHORT TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED SOME CLOUD TOP WARMING...BUT RADAR IMAGERY STILL SHOWED
BANDS OF HIGH REFLECTIVITY EXTENDING WELL OUT INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST AND AWAY...THE
CONFLUENCE AREA/OUTER BAND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN
AS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO THE CONFLUENCE ZONE WEAKENS. 

THE RAP FORECAST CONTINUE TO SUGGEST 40-50KT 850MB ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH 18Z WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN MODERATE TO HVY
RAINFALL RATES IN THIS PARTS OF THE STATE.  BECAUSE THE POSITION
OF THE BAND SHOULD BE ALIGNED OVER PARTS OF THE URBAN CENTER OF
HILLSBOROUGH/PINELLAS AND MANATEE COUNTIES WHERE  THE GROUND HAD
ALREADY BEEN SATURATED BY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE
WEEK...MEANING THAT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY POSE A FLASH FLOODING
THREAT OR AT VERY LEAST A PROLONGED INUNDATION FLOODING CONCERN.

BANN

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   28748222 28388138 27538187 27078271 27588322