MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0631
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
858 AM EDT FRI SEP 02 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST GA...SOUTHWEST SC...EXTREME NORTHEAST
FL 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 021257Z - 021530Z
 
SUMMARY...FLOODING CONCERNS NEAR CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE
AND CONVECTIVE CELLS IN OUTER BANDS EXTENDING NORTHEAST ALONG
DEFORMATION ZONE. 

DISCUSSION...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN GA PER THE 12Z NHC POSITION AND IT WAS MOVING TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. THE BEST COVERAGE OF RAINFALL WAS LOCATED NORTH AND
EAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER WHERE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INFLUX WAS MAXIMIZED.  ALOFT...THERE WAS STRONG ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS PARTS OF GA WHILE RIGHT ENTRANCE DYNAMICS FROM THE POLAR
JET ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WAS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE BAROCLINIC
LEAF/SHIELD ALONG THE NORTHERN/NORTHWEST SIDE OF HERMINE'S
CIRCULATION.  THIS HAS RESULTED IN A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HVY
PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SOAK THE GROUND WITH
.5"/HR OR GREATER RATES PRECURSORY TO THE DEEPER CONVECTION NEARER
THE SURFACE CIRCULATION AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD WITH 1.5-2"/HR
RATES. 

UPSTREAM REDEVELOPMENT ALONG HERMINES OUTER BANDS ALONG WITH
FAIRLY SUPPORTIVE NORTHERLY CELL MOTION VECTORS COULD POSE
TRAINING ORIENTATION ALONG BAND.  HI-RES CAMS SUCH AS RECENT FEW
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE 00Z ARW ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SCENARIO
SUGGESTING TOTALS OVER 2-4" IN THE NEXT 6HRS POSING A FLASH
FLOODING CONCERN IN THIS VICINITY AS WELL. 

BANN

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...ILM...JAX...MHX...RAH...
TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   34957839 34157755 32937962 32218118 30948155 
            30778324 32378388 33858266 34678102 34917951