MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0632
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1129 AM EDT FRI SEP 02 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST GA...SOUTHWEST SC...EXTREME NORTHEAST
FL 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 021528Z - 021830Z
 
SUMMARY...FLOODING CONCERNS NEAR CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE
AND CONVECTIVE CELLS IN OUTER BANDS EXTENDING NORTHEAST ALONG
DEFORMATION ZONE. 

DISCUSSION...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS LOCATED OVER
SOUTHEAST GA PER THE 15Z NHC POSITION AND IT WAS MOVING TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST. THE BEST COVERAGE OF RAINFALL WAS LOCATED NORTH AND
EAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER WHERE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INFLUX WAS MAXIMIZED.  ALOFT...THERE WAS STRONG ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS PARTS OF GA WHILE RIGHT ENTRANCE DYNAMICS FROM THE POLAR
JET ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WAS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE BAROCLINIC
LEAF/SHIELD ALONG THE NORTHERN/NORTHWEST SIDE OF HERMINE'S
CIRCULATION.  THIS HAS RESULTED IN A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HVY
PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SOAK THE GROUND WITH
.5"/HR OR GREATER RATES PRECURSORY TO THE DEEPER CONVECTION NEARER
THE SURFACE CIRCULATION AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD WITH 1.5-2"/HR
RATES. 

UPSTREAM REDEVELOPMENT ALONG HERMINES OUTER BANDS ALONG WITH
FAIRLY SUPPORTIVE NORTHERLY CELL MOTION VECTORS COULD POSE
TRAINING ORIENTATION ALONG BAND.  HI-RES CAMS SUCH AS RECENT FEW
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE 00Z ARW ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SCENARIO
SUGGESTING TOTALS OVER 2-4" IN THE NEXT 6HRS POSING A FLASH
FLOODING CONCERN IN THIS VICINITY AS WELL. 

BANN

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...ILM...JAX...MHX...RAH...
TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   35117811 34377695 33117926 32428096 31568171 
            31398291 32388341 33818239 34678102 35107950