MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0633...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
247 PM EDT FRI SEP 02 2016
 
CORRECTED FOR EXPIRATION TIME

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN GEORGIA...SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 021842Z - 022130Z
 
SUMMARY...FLOODING CONCERNS NEAR CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE
AND CONVECTIVE CELLS IN OUTER BANDS EXTENDING NORTHEAST ALONG
DEFORMATION ZONE. 

DISCUSSION...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS LOCATED NEAR
THE SC/GA BORDER PER THE 18Z NHC POSITION AND THE STORM WAS MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. THE BEST COVERAGE OF RAINFALL REMAINED
LOCATED NORTH AND EAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER WHERE THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX WAS MAXIMIZED.  ALOFT...THERE WAS STRONG
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW CHANNEL HELPING TO DEFINE THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD.  THE RESULT WAS A
LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HVY PRECIPITATION THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
SOAK THE GROUND WITH .5"/HR OR GREATER RATES...WITH RAINFALL RATES
TIED TO THE DEEP TROPICAL CONVECTION APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR.  

UPSTREAM REDEVELOPMENT ALONG HERMINES INFLOW BANDS AND NORTHERLY
CELL MOTION VECTORS COULD POSE TRAINING ORIENTATION ALONG THE
BAND.  HI-RES CAMS SUCH AS RECENT FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE 12Z
ARW STILL SUGGEST 1 TO PERHAPS AS 3 INCHES IN THROUGH 21Z WITH THE
FLASH FLOODING RISK INCREASING AS THE GROUND BECOMES INCREASINGLY
SATURATED. 

BANN

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   35387854 35367718 34707641 33617764 32937968 
            32618055 31998118 32238200 32958241 34158170 
            34678102 35207956