MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0634
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
542 PM EDT FRI SEP 02 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN SC INTO ERN NC 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 022141Z - 030100Z
 
SUMMARY...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING FROM T.S. HERMINE
THROUGH 01Z WILL BE FROM CNTRL SC/NC TO THE COAST. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL RATES SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED NEAR THE COAST.

DISCUSSION...THE 21Z NHC ADVISORY PLACES T.S. HERMINE ABOUT 30 MI
WNW OF CHS WITH MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NE AT 17 KTS...A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING. A
QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WAS ANALYZED NORTH OF HERMINE...EXTENDING
WSWWD ACROSS THE EAST COAST NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER TO THE CNTRL
SC/GA BORDER. THE BEST INSTABILITY WAS LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WHICH IS WHERE DUAL POL
RAINFALL ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN NEAR 2 IN/HR WITH PERIODS OF
TRAINING. FARTHER INLAND...GAUGE MEASUREMENTS NEAR AND SOUTH OF
CAE HAVE REPORTED 4-8 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH
STEADY RAINFALL RATES OF 0.5 TO 1.0 IN/HR CONTINUING AS OF 21Z.
3-5 INCHES WAS REPORTED TO HAVE FALLEN INTO PORTIONS OF NC.

AS HERMINE CONTINUES TO PARALLEL THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH
01Z..30-40 MI INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...CONTINUED STRONG
MOISTURE FLUX WILL EDGE NWD UP THE SC COAST TO THE CNTRL NC COAST.
IT IS HERE TO ROUGHLY 50 MI INLAND THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR 2+ IN/HR
RAINFALL RATES WILL EXIST IN THE PRESENCE OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND OFFSHORE INSTABILITY TRANSPORTED INLAND.

LOCATIONS BEYOND ROUGHLY 50 MI FROM THE COASTLINE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO EXPERIENCE STEADY MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES
AVERAGING 0.5 TO 1.0 IN/HR...FALLING ON TOP OF SATURATED
SOILS...CONTINUING A FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   35517679 35137583 34427657 34287719 33647793 
            33367896 33337968 33338047 33148104 33518123 
            34468105 35158021 35447902 35507809