MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0636
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
923 PM EDT FRI SEP 02 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN SC INTO ERN NC TO THE VA BORDER 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 030122Z - 030720Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY TO EXTEND NEWD THROUGH ERN NC
AHEAD OF T.S. HERMINE THROUGH 07Z. RAINFALL RATES SHOULD BE
GREATEST NEAR THE COAST WITH 2-3 IN/HR...WHILE LOCATIONS FARTHER
INLAND EXPERIENCE PERSISTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 IN/HR ATOP SATURATED SOILS.
 
DISCUSSION...THE 00Z NHC ADVISORY FOR T.S. HERMINE PUT THE CENTER
ABOUT 35 MI WSW OF MYR...WITH A CONTINUED NEWD PROGRESSION NEAR 17
KTS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z.  THE BEST INSTABILITY SUPPORTING
RAINFALL RATES OVER 2 IN/HR CONTINUES TO BE CONFINED TO COASTAL
LOCATIONS OF NC...NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED JUST NORTH
OF HERMINE...AND ON THE WARM SIDE OF A LOW LEVEL AXIS OF
FRONTOGENESIS ORIENTED FROM SW TO NE ACROSS ERN NC. THIS AREA IS
ALSO IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
AN UPPER LEVEL JET LOCATED OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC COAST...ALONG
WITH AN AREA OF MID-UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

AS HERMINE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NEWD TONIGHT...STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOCATED EAST OF THE CENTER WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE
FARTHER UP THE COAST OF NC...NEARING THE VA BORDER BY 07Z. WHILE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
JET STREAK DEPARTS FROM THE COAST...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN...CONTINUING A FLASH FLOOD THREAT
FOR MUCH OF ERN NC. EXPECT THE GREATEST RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3
IN/HR TO CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST WITH 6 HR RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4-7
INCHES POSSIBLE OVER ERN NC.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   36757649 36547572 35887542 35277538 35037561 
            34827604 34377685 34287784 34437877 34387918 
            34567960 34797972 35217966 35747907 36227834 
            36577776