MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0637
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
715 PM EDT SAT SEP 03 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN CO INTO NWRN KS/SWRN NE 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 032315Z - 040500Z
 
SUMMARY...A FEW AREAS ACROSS FAR ERN CO INTO NWRN KS/SWRN NE COULD
SEE FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING RAINFALL LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD AND MAY BE LIMITED TO A
FEW COUNTIES.

DISCUSSION...AT 23Z...A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS LOCATED NEAR
THE WRN CO/NE BORDER...MOVING OFF TOWARD THE EAST AT AROUND 10
KTS. THIS AREA WAS LOCATED NEAR THE TAIL END OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING THROUGH W-CNTRL NE. ADDITIONAL
STORMS WERE OBSERVED IN E-CNTRL CO AND WRN KS...WITHIN AN
ESTIMATED AXIS OF 1000-2000 J/KG CAPE...ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS WERE
NOT AS ORGANIZED. BLENDED TWP IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWED AN AXIS OF
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES...FROM THE
TX AND OK PANHANDLES INTO AND ACROSS CNTRL KS...WITH VALUES
DROPPING OFF TOWARD THE CO/KS BORDER. 

AN INCREASE IN SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED PAST 00Z ACROSS THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO WRN KS...WITH SOME FLOW BACKING TOWARD THE
EAST IN THE VICINITY OF E-CNTRL CO AROUND A LEE LOW OBSERVED
BETWEEN PUB AND LHX AT 23Z. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH A FOCUS NEAR
I-70 GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY SEEN IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR I-70. THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
WINDS TONIGHT WILL TRANSPORT HIGHER MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS NWD TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WHILE
ALLOWING FOR POSSIBLE BACK BUILDING AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS.
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS ROUGHLY 2-3 INCHES IN 3 HOURS ACROSS THE
MPD THREAT AREA...WITH LOCALLY LOWER VALUES DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
WHICH FELL FRIDAY EVENING NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER. WHILE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...A FEW COUNTIES IN NWRN KANSAS COULD
PICK UP 3-5 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...BOU...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...LBF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   41000183 40950091 40639926 39829849 38809891 
            38460050 38570146 38980253 39450299 40220317 
            40840275