MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0640
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
727 PM EDT SUN SEP 04 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN KS INTO SRN NE 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 042325Z - 050330Z
 
SUMMARY...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN KS AND
SRN NE WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION LAST
NIGHT. RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR ARE EXPECTED WHERE TRAINING
CELLS DEVELOP.

DISCUSSION...STORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN ERN CO BETWEEN 19-20Z HAVE
MOVED INTO WRN NE AND NWRN KS AT ROUGHLY 20-30 KTS. OUTSIDE OF A
SUPERCELL WHICH MOVED FROM WICHITA TO LOGAN COUNTY AT 23Z...THESE
CELLS HAVE NOT YET POSED MUCH OF A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. ADDITIONAL
CELLS WERE NOTED TO BE DEVELOPING FROM SERN CO TO THE CNTRL CO/KS
BORDER. RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO 2000-3000
J/KG MLCAPE FROM CNTRL TO WRN KS AS OF 23Z AND KINEMATIC
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY INCREASE THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT EARLY TONIGHT IF ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. 

VAD WIND PLOTS SHOWED 850 MB WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING AT KAMA AND
KDDC OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS INCREASE IS IN LINE WITH
SHORT TERM RAP FORECASTS WHICH SHOW 850 MB WINDS REACHING 50+ KTS
AS FAR WEST AS GLD BY 02Z. THIS INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
HELP TO CONTINUE FEEDING MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR INTO WRN KS AND SWRN
NE THROUGH 03Z. WHILE BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE AREA INTO SD AND NRN NE...OVERRUNNING OF LOCALLY GENERATED
OUTFLOWS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO BACKBUILDING OF A FEW CELLS...GIVEN
ALIGNMENT OF LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SSW...CAUSING A LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...LBF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   41379962 41119899 40079885 39369901 38709988 
            38320076 38310136 38850184 39820165 40870060