MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0645
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
341 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NM 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 061940Z - 070140Z
 
SUMMARY....THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
OF EAST-CENTRAL NM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

DISCUSSION....IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSION OF COLD
CONVECTIVE TOPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST-CENTRAL NM AS
DIURNAL HEATING AND DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVES WELL AHEAD AND TO THE
NORTHEAST OF HURRICANE NEWTON CROSSING BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AT THIS
TIME. THE CONVECTION IS BEING FURTHER AIDED BY FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS GIVEN PROXIMITY TO TERRAIN.

THE LATEST CIRA-LPW PRODUCT SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED AXIS OF MOISTURE
EMANATING FROM NEWTON IN THE 700/300 MB LAYER...AND THE TRENDS IN
SHOW AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN THE LEVEL OF MOISTURE CONCENTRATION
IN THIS LAYER MOVING THROUGH THE LATE DAY AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL
EFFICIENCY...WITH INCREASED WARM LAYER RAIN PROCESSES...AND THUS
AN ENHANCEMENT IN RAINFALL RATES.

PWATS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
NM WHICH IS 2 TO 3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL...AND COUPLED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED RAINFALL EFFICIENCY AND OROGRAPHIC
SUPPORT....EXPECT RATES TO EXCEED 2 INCHES/HR WITHIN SOME OF THE
STRONGER CONVECTIVE CORES.

THE CELL MOTION IS ALREADY RATHER SLOW WITH CONVECTION TENDING TO
BECOME ANCHORED CLOSE TO THE TERRAIN...AND THIS WILL FAVOR AN
ELEVATED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING GIVEN THE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.
THE HIRES GUIDANCE MAY BE LOCALLY UNDERPLAYING THE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL GIVEN THE INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT. EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 INCHES AT LEAST LOCALLY NEAR AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE RUNOFF AND/OR FLASH
FLOODING.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36830468 36230424 35010430 34210447 33550468 
            32600519 32060585 31910677 32190727 32850748 
            33730718 34780671 35600646 36360608 36760560