MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0647
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1029 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX PANHANDLE...SOUTH CENTRAL NM 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 070230Z - 070830Z
 
SUMMARY...DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS N MEXICO INTO WEST
TX/S CENT NM.

DISCUSSION...GOES WV LOOP AND 00Z RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING/RETURNING FLOW BEGINNING
TO LIFT THROUGH CHIHUAHUA SUPPORTING BROAD SCALE ASCENT ALONG THE
NM/W TX BORDER.  VERY TIGHT UPPER LEVEL JET GRADIENT WITH RIGHT
ENTRANCE TO 70KT ISOTACH OVER NW NM AND ANTICYCLONE/0 KT POINT
NEAR THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS...LIFT IN TANDEM AND TIGHTEN AS
SHORTWAVE LIFTS NNE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  THIS SUPPORTS
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL INFLOW THAT MAXIMIZED CONVERGENCE AT THE RIGHT
EXIT (NORTH OF THE 850 RIDGE AXIS AT OR ALONG THE MX/W TX
PANHANDLE BORDER)...THIS APEX/CONVERGENCE MAXIMA WILL BE SLOW TO
LIFT NORTHWARD AS WELL SUPPORTING AN ANCHORED OR VERY SLOW MOVING
REDEVELOPMENT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS W TX INTO S NM.  LIMITING
FACTOR MAY BE THE LIMITED INSTABILITY OR MORE TO THE FACT THE
MODERATE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6.0C/KM).  HOWEVER AS THE 00Z EPZ
SOUNDING INDICATES THE MASS PUMPING OF HIGH LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR
ALLOWING LOWER LFC/LCLS AND  MODERATE PARCEL PROFILES AND CAPES IN
THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE.  ADDITIONAL GIVEN ANOMALOUS DEEP MST
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH 300MB NOTED PER CIRA LAYERED TPW
PRODUCTS...TOTAL TPWS NEAR 1.7" PER GPS NETWORK WERE NOTED SO
EXPECTATION IS FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION WITH RATES UP TO
2"/HR LIKELY.  RAP/HRRR FORECASTS SUGGEST SOME TRAINING PROFILES
FOR CONVECTION DUE AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS AND CELLS LIFT MORE NNE/NE UNDER MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW NEAR 05-07Z ACROSS EXT W TX INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NM WITH SOME
SUGGESTION OF TOTALS IN THE 2-4" POSSIBLE THROUGH 8-9Z.      

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   33750549 33500487 32820445 31630453 30640501 
            31100589 31390625 31560665 31620714 31910728 
            32440714 33290642