MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0651
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1108 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST AZ...SOUTHWEST NM 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 071500Z - 072100Z
 
SUMMARY...AS T.S. NEWTON QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH STRONG UPWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...WHICH MAY RESULT IN
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. 

DISCUSSION...T.S. NEWTON CONTINUES TO TRACK STEADILY TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONARA AND IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. 
MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT STRONG SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HIGH PWS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA.  THE 12 UTC SOUNDING FROM TUS WAS OVER 1.75 INCHES...JUST
BELOW THE DAILY MAX AS INDICATED BY THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY
PAGE.  THIS MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH WIDELY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A PRECIPITATION SHIELD SPREADING NORTHEAST
IN ADVANCE OF NEWTON.  WHILE WIDESPREAD RAINS CAN BE
EXPECTED...THE FAST FORWARD MOTION OF THE STORM ALONG WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO HAMPER THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS.  HOWEVER...OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND VERY
EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES MAY RAISE THE POSSIBILITY FOR AT
LEAST SOME LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA.

WHILE THEIR AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN THE 00Z
HRW-ARW AND NMMB...RECENT RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL AND EXPERIMENTAL
HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES FOR THE 06-HR
PERIOD ENDING AT 21 UTC.  THIS GUIDANCE SHOWS THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
FOCUSED IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN EXTENDING FROM SANTA CRUZ AND
WESTERN PIMA COUNTIES...NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
GRAHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA.

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...

LAT...LON   33900864 32960913 32220943 32001012 31361056 
            31591135 32191160 33431068