MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0655
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
623 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS/NRN OK INTO SWRN MO/NWRN AR 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 082222Z - 090422Z
 
SUMMARY...AREAS OF REPEATING CONVECTION WITH FLASH FLOODING SHOULD
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN KS/NRN OK
INTO SWRN MO AND NWRN AR. 2-3 HOUR RAINFALL RATES OF 3-4 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...22Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PLACED AN ELONGATED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS THE MO/AR BORDER...WWD INTO NRN OK
AND NWWD INTO SWRN KS. THE WRN PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN 2.1 AND 2.3 INCHES PER AREA GPS
DATA FROM WICHITA KS AND BRANSON MO...WHICH INCORPORATES MOISTURE
LEFTOVER FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE NEWTON. LOW LEVEL INFLOW
ACROSS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN MODEST SO FAR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AT 15-25 KTS...BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE BOUNDARY HAS ALLOWED FOR LOCALIZED AREAS OF
TRAINING WITH DUAL-POL RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR OVER PORTIONS
OF E-CNTRL KS AND THE OZARKS OF NWRN MO AND NERN OK. 

AS A 700 MB WAVE OVER WRN KS...RELATED TO THE SHEARED REMNANTS OF
NEWTON...ADVANCES EWD...TWO THINGS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR.
FIRST...INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF
THE CNTRL OK/KS BORDER AHEAD OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND
SECOND...AN INCREASED MAGNITUDE OF THE 850 MB FLOW WILL OCCUR AS
NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET OCCURS. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO VARIABLES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE
COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM THE KS/OK BORDER INTO THE OZARKS. RAINFALL OF 3-4
INCHES IN 2-3 HOURS IS EXPECTED WITHIN AREAS OF TRAINING
RAINFALL...LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF
4-5 INCHES BY 04Z.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...LZK...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   38269865 38259730 38159611 38019507 37779377 
            37159189 36179166 35979287 36099419 36209579 
            36509704 36879794 37259879 37619933 37979928