MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0656
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1201 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHWEST MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 090401Z - 091001Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS INTO
SOUTHWEST MO AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BACKBUILD AND TRAIN ACROSS
THE AREA.

DISCUSSION...THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT DESCRIBED IN MPD NUMBER 655
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. THE AXIS MAY BE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY NORTH
AS THE DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST AND STRENGTHENING UPPER JET
TO THE NORTH ARE HELPING NUDGE THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD.
THUS THE AXIS OF BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH...BUT STILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST
KS INTO WESTERN MO. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITSELF...OR EVEN INTENSIFY A
BIT...ACROSS SOUTHERN KS. THIS COMBINED WITH FORCING AHEAD OF A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
STRENGTHENING JET...SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. IN FACT SIGNS POINT TO A POSSIBLE UPTICK IN THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND BACKBUILDING INCREASES...RESULTING IN A WEST TO EAST
TRAINING AXIS OVER SOUTHEAST KS.

MEAN FLOW IS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...HOWEVER THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET AND VEERING WIND PROFILE CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF
BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING CONVECTION. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE
BEEN TRENDING NORTH WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST AMOUNTS. WHILE SOME
NORTHWARD PUSH IS LIKELY...WOULD APPEAR THE 02Z HRRR MAY BE A BIT
TOO FAR NORTH GIVEN THE BACKBUILDING CURRENTLY SEEN ON RADAR. ALSO
THE HRRR MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHEAST
MO...WHERE EARLIER CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE CUT INTO
INSTABILITY. WOULD EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3"...WITH ISOLATED
3-5" AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHEAST KS...ACROSS THE MPD AREA THROUGH 10Z.
CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE FOR A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STATE AFTER 10Z AS
THE LOW LEVEL FORCING BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND BECOMES DISPLACED FROM THE BETTER INSTABILITY.

CHENARD

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   38799689 38389280 37589223 36959298 36659428 
            36979485 37119701 37399870