MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0659
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
726 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/NRN OK INTO SERN KS AND FAR SWRN MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 092325Z - 100525Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OK/KS BORDER INTO SERN KANSAS AND FAR SWRN MO AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THROUGH 05Z. THE GREATEST CONCERN IS ACROSS SERN KANSAS
WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL LAST NIGHT.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED RECENT EXPANSION OF
CONVECTION ALONG A COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH KS FROM NE TO SW.
A FEW WEAK AND SLOW MOVING CELLS HAD ALSO DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT OVER E-CNTRL KS AND THE WRN OK/KS BORDER AS OF 23Z.
NEARBY GPS SITES AROUND WICHITA REPORTED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES AND MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN 2000
AND 3000 J/KG AREA-WIDE PER THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE. THIS
ENVIRONMENT EASILY SUPPORTS RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WITH KDDC
DUAL POL ESTIMATES NEAR 3 IN/HR IN CLARK COUNTY KS.   

VAD WIND PLOTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CONFIRM RAP ANALYSES OF
WEAK FLOW...10-20 KTS...FROM THE SW. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN SPEED IS ANTICIPATED IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES SERN KS...VEERING OF FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR BRIEF
TRAINING OF CONVECTION GIVEN NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FROM SW TO
NE. GIVEN A WIDE SWATH OF 4-8+ INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS FROM S-CNTRL TO SERN KS...FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE
ONLY 1 TO 1.5 IN/HR IN SOME LOCATIONS. WHILE THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE PROGRESSIVE...LOCALIZED TRAINING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OVER LOW FFG MAY PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...EAX...ICT...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   38389433 36969465 36619771 36359957 36650039 
            37339999 37909859 38289674