MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0660
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
951 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN MO INTO FAR SRN IL/IN 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 100150Z - 100730Z
 
SUMMARY...THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH
06Z FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN MO INTO SRN IL. THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED 3-4 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WILL EXIST WHICH WOULD
CAUSE RUNOFF ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LOW.

DISCUSSION...01Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE LAST IMAGES OF
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF A REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY LOCATED ENEWD THROUGH SRN MO INTO SRN IL. OVERRUNNING OF
THIS BOUNDARY AND ANOTHER ACROSS THE KS/MO BORDER HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR REGIONS OF TRAINING CONVECTION IN CNTRL AND ERN
MO. RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED INCREASING SHOWERS JUST
NORTH OF THE MO BOUNDARIES...EXTENDING WEST TOWARD CONVECTION
LOCATED AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ERN KS. A
CORRIDOR OF DEEP MOISTURE...TIED TO THE REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE
RELATED TO HURRICANE NEWTON CONFIRMED VIA THE CIRA LAYERED
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL MS VALLEY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES JUST AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF ROUGHLY 1-2
IN/HR...LOCALLY HIGHER. AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...STRENGTHENING 850 MB FLOW TO 30-40 KTS BY 06Z WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASED OVERRUNNING OF OUTFLOW AND CONTINUED PERIODS
OF TRAINING CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL MO. GIVEN LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FROM THE WSW...PARALLEL TO THE OUTFLOW...THIS
WILL PROMOTE TRAINING OF CELLS WHICH SEEMS TO BE A GROWING CONCERN
GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND GIVEN INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS RAINFALL COVERAGE INCREASES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS
OF LOWER FFG.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ILX...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   39318985 39108827 38308825 37768977 37649185 
            38019421 38699443 39039381 39209185